標題: 什麼是博弈論?又被翻译带歪了,看到Game theory後我才恍然大悟 [打印本頁] 作者: admin 時間: 2024-11-8 15:09 標題: 什麼是博弈論?又被翻译带歪了,看到Game theory後我才恍然大悟 best decision in a competitive situation, or
在竞争情势下的最好决议计划，或
fairest decision in a cooperative situation
在互助的環境下最公允的决议
... where the outcome for each player depends on their decision and the decisions of other players.
It is useful in business, military, sports, finance, personal life, games and more.
它在贸易、军事、體育、金融、小我糊口、遊戲等方面都颇有用。
Let's have a look at an example to see how Game Theory can help us find the best decision.
讓咱們看一個例子，看看博弈論若何帮忙咱們找到最好决议计划。
Casey and Dana are arrested after a burglary. They are in separate rooms and cannot cooperate.
凯西種戴娜在一次入室偷盗後被捕。他們在分歧的房間，没法互助。
Casey has been told:凯西被告诉：
if you both stay quiet you both get 1 month in prison for trespass
若是你們都連结缄默，你們都将因不法侵入罪入狱一個月
if you accuse Dana: you go free, Dana gets 10 months
若是你指控Dana你就自由了，而Dana要被關10個月
if Dana accuses you: you get 10 months, Dana goes free
若是Dana指控你，你将被關10個月，而Dana就自由了
if you both blame each other you both get 6 months
若是你們相互责怪，你們都被判6個月禁锢。
What do you advise Casey to do? 你建议凯西怎样做？
... think about it for a bit ...
So maybe both Casey and Dana should keep quiet, right? They get only 1 month each that way..
以是或许凯西種戴娜都应當連结缄默，對嗎？如许的话，他們每人只會被關一個月。
But that outcome is called 但這個成果被称為 unstable.不不乱
Because either side can do better by making the "I go free, you get 10 months" decision.
由于任何一方均可以做得更好，只必要指控對方，對方被關10個月，而本身便可以自由了。
So what to do?那该怎样辦？
Well, sadly, Casey is better off blaming Dana.
很遗憾，凯西最佳仍是指控戴娜.
We can see it in a table like this:咱們可以在如许的表格中看到：
Casey risks getting 10 months by staying quiet! 凯西連结缄默可能會被判10個月！
So they will most likely get 6 months each.以是他們两小我极可能城市被關6個月。
The set of player's strategies where Casey and Dana both blame each other (-6,-6) is a Nash Equilibrium, named after John Nash (the subject of the movie "A Beautiful Mind"). 除痣藥膏,
凯西種戴娜相互指控對方的计谋集（-6，-6）是一個纳什平衡，以约翰·纳什（片子《标致心灵》的主角）定名。
It is when no player is better off by changing only their own strategy.
In the above example: at (-6,-6) Casey is not better off by changing to "quiet", and Dana is also not better off by changing to "quiet", so this is a Nash Equilibrium.